The first round of the 2020 Portugal Phone Number List elections took place on March 15 in France, in the midst of the COVID-19 epidemic and despite requests for postponement. At stake, the health of the French, but also the representativeness of the elections. In the United States, techniques aimed at reducing the participation rate of certain populations are called ” voting suppression “, which can take the form of additional barriers to voting (request for an identity document, suppression of polling stations, etc.). Without going into the details of the impact on the results for the moment, I decided to look at the effect on the participation rate.

The turnout was stagnant But the participation rate has been falling for years anyway, it’s normal that people did not go to vote! To be sure, I looked at what has happened since 2001 in various elections, always in the first round if necessary to spare me additional fluctuations. Abstention rate in elections (1st round only) The best we can say is that European women are taken more and more seriously, legislative elections are less so, and abstention stagnates in municipal and presidential elections. A jump in abstention: from 36.5% to 55.4% Focus on municipal: I propose to model the abstention in the first round simply as a random walk

Municipales 2020 : Abstention

taking into account the history since 1959. I also integrate the limits of rejection of a hypothesis of a statistical fluctuation with a degree 95% confidence. We can say with more than 95% certainty that the real abstention is not a statistical fluctuation The range of possibilities is quite wide: between 26% and 47%. However, we are well above in 2020, at 55.4%. For fanatics of operational excellence, we say that we are more than “3 sigma”, there is less than one chance in 3000 that it is the result of chance. The most direct explanation: COVID-19. To find out where are the 8.7 million voters lost, I used published data on

Portugal-Phone-Number-List (1)

data.gouv.fr . The participation rate in municipal elections has fallen by almost a third compared to 2014, with local inequalities. In 2014 : In 2020: The gap varies geographically, with a particularly marked increase in abstention in the Pays de la Loire, the South-East, and in the Grand Est. This list is very similar to that of the regions most affected by the virus. Conclusion A quick analysis, in conjunction with the results of an IPSOS poll, shows a first consequence of maintaining the first round of municipal elections: a turnout which is crashing because of the epidemic. We will try to answer 2 other questions later, always using the data :

Municipales : Abstention Supplémentaire

Did the maintenance of the poll on March 15 contribute to the spread of the virus? The event could have caused direct victims on average 18.5 days after infection (first week of April), but also indirect victims because people infected in the polling stations could in turn serve as a vector. How to organize democracy in times of confinement? The second round was postponed for health reasons, but that does not prevent us from considering the democratic future of the country. We will talk about the solutions that may be presented to us to meet the need for the organization of elections.consider themselves already happy, with the current

knowledge on the virus. Will come after the psycho-social risks related to the complex consequences of Covid-19, of confinement, of the decision of the State to close parts of the economy in a few days, also for some, of the immense sadness to have been stricken in his family by the disease… all this can certainly not be left to the monopoly of the employer! Notes: (1) the intervention of Friends of the Earth, which brings together around thirty local associations around the protection of human beings and the environment, was declared inadmissible, for lack of interest in acting. companies that adapt and reinvent themselves will

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