We have chosen to look Belize WhatsApp Number List at countries “similar” to Sweden; for the sake of simplicity and time constraint. We therefore focused on the countries of Europe. It also allowed us to avoid any seasonality bias between the southern and northern hemispheres. This approach also allowed us to more easily collect homogeneous data on the countries, in particular thanks to the databases of the European Commission. In our opinion, the success of a country’s policy in the management of the pandemic must be multi-criteria and not be satisfied with evaluating the number of cases / deaths (in volume or per thousand inhabitants).

We have therefore chosen to observe three categories of indicators: the health indicators of course: contamination rate / positivity, excess mortality compared to the historical number of deaths; the economic indicators : a whole lot of economic indicators calculated by the OECD, the European Commission or the IMF head e bridge and give elements of understanding and measuring the economic health of countries … such as: the consumer confidence index, business confidence index, growth estimates, inflation, economic sentiment index, debt, unemployment rate forecasts, etc. the social indicators : we could have taken the divorce rate / marriage, the suicide rate, the rate of increase in inequality of purchasing power or poverty, for example.

The importance of the choice of data

For the sake of simplicity, we have chosen the Gross National Happiness, a composite indicator for measuring the well-being of a population As for the indicator for measuring policies conducted by states, we followed the current trend and took the indicator calculated by the University of Oxford as do most data sites on covid-19. Surprisingly, we did not find other sources of data on government action. We chose for our analyzes to use the Containment and Health Index (documentation of the aggregated index here and documentation of unit indicators there ) because this indicator: takes into account traffic restriction measures (example: closure of schools, restrictions on gatherings)


but without taking into account the measures to support the economy Finally, we decided to look at the average of our variables over the whole year corresponding to the epidemic (March 2020 to March 2021). Once the variables have been chosen, the databases downloaded, cleaned, formatted, we can start the analysis. Indeed, we must not believe everything we read in the media… The first question we wanted to answer was whether Sweden had really had a policy against the current of other European countries. We therefore compared the restriction indices of European countries and it turns out that Sweden is not part of the Top 3 of the least restrictive countries!

Choice of observation sample

What we have noticed (and this has been well relayed by the media) is the virtual invariance of Sweden’s strategy since the start of the crisis; this can be seen with a very low standard deviation of the restriction index over the past year. The standard deviation varies between around 5 and 15 points for all 27 countries, that of Sweden is 5.4 points, positioning it in 2nd place among the most stable countries in their policy (behind Belgium with 5 , 3 points and ahead of Latvia with 5.7 standard deviation points). All in all, the restriction policies of the various European countries are quite similar, varying from around 40 to 68 points, with a low standard deviation of 7 points.

We wanted to compare the health and economic results between the Member States. What we deduce is that Sweden does not have such good health results as what could be reported in some press articles. Indeed, by looking for example at the evolution of the positivity rate over the past period (nb: the health variables are well correlated with each other; the positivity rate is positively correlated with excess mortality), we notice that Sweden is not positioned among the best students. With an average rate of 8% over the past period, Sweden is not far from Italy with 9% and remains behind France with 6% or Finland with 2%! In terms of excess mortality, we note that Sweden performs much worse than its northern neighbor:

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