Unsold products are inevitable on Bolivia WhatsApp Number List products that are grown, but in what proportion? The first question to ask is our decision criteria. Are we trying to maximize the turnover or the margin (difference between turnover and production costs)? We found that the goal was not clearly defined for the teams. We agreed on the need to judge Smart Prediction’s performance against the potential for margin maximization . The initial objective of the mission was not to find a tool to calculate the optimal quantities to be delivered. We nevertheless wanted to devote a small part of the budget to it to give us an opinion on this subject.
Our work answered a question. If we produced a model in a few days, how would it perform against Smart Prediction ? The logic here is to say that if we get to good results quickly, we will have identified a point of improvement. This improvement potentially carries a stake of several million euros. The data available was the quantities delivered to each point of sale, and returns, by SKU. These data represent several million lines. We have enriched them with information on the dates of school vacations and on the weather forecasts available on D-5 following our interviews with marketing and sales managers: they consider these factors to be crucial, and we considered that they were simple enough to recover in our approach.
Can we do better
Having only real data available, we did not have complete information on the request. Indeed, if there are unsold items, we know the level of demand. If there are no unsold items, we lose information because we do not know the quantity actually requested. We therefore focused on limiting unsold products and the impact on the margin without making any other assumptions about demand. With these assumptions, the simulated turnover will necessarily be lower than the actual turnover . We did not simulate an increase in sales when out of stock. We just optimized deliveries to reduce unsold items, which can lead to more stockouts.
Cream Pie: For any half-empty glass, there is a half-full glass. So: “there are plenty of opportunities for those who know how to seize them”. Everything is here. How to identify opportunities, and seize them. The question arises of the role of the company in the transformation. Should it internalize this retraining work for its employees, with the HR function and consulting firms, or should it outsource it to specialized organizations such as outplacement firms or Pôle Emploi? A whole range of solutions can be used, the worst being to stay in the middle of the ford or to think “one size fits all”, that is to say that we can deal in simplistic mode with the case of all people with a single solution.
On the scope we set for ourselves
The digital transition, like the ecological transition, is here. It is a fact. We can deny it, we can deplore it, we can minimize it, we can be outraged. As a responsible decision-maker, as an Adult, we must take this into account. Like little children at the seaside, we can try to protect the sand castle from the rising sea with our hands; it is better to rebuild it higher up on the beach. What are the impacts of measures taken by States on health, economic and social outcomes? This is the main astonishment of our analysis, we did not find a statistically representative correlation between restriction policies and health, economic and social variables.
The only variable in our analysis that seems to correlate with restrictive policies is the 2020 debt forecast (calculated by the IMF): the harder the policy, the larger the debt Regarding the economic results, our analysis allows us to confirm that Sweden is a successful economic player, and this for almost 20 years. The evolution of GDP growth between 2002 and 2020 shows that Sweden has stable growth and that it has “suffered” less from the covid crisis, compared to other countries such as France or Italy: decrease minus 3 points against nearly 10 points for the Latin countries. What we also notice is that Finland is doing well by staying neck and neck with Sweden.