It’s mathematically impossible Qatar WhatsApp Number List this option is more likely than the 3rd or 6th, but a large majority (89% in the general population) think so at first glance. We have built up a representation of Linda which saves us time but affects the quality of our judgment. Example : I have to entrust an internal project to improve the recruitment process to Julien or Mélissa, who come from the same school and who volunteer. I know that Julien was a member of an association and that he has already carried out several fundraisers for the organization of events bringing together several thousand people. How to avoid representativeness bias
Rather than associating Julien with a different skill by extension of his past successes, it is better to assess the skills of Julien and Mélissa which relate to the needs of my work site. Framing Example : I am organizing a weekend for my team with a budget of 3000 €. I spend 1 hour negotiating a 20% discount on the rental of the house which was offered at 750 €. I also spent 20 hours negotiating a 6% discount on a € 250k quote. We are going to rent a big house for the weekend for 750 € in total. I am convinced that the owner can give
me a price at 600 €, a reduction of 20% . I spent an hour on the phone with him to convince him to give me a discount. At the same time, a supplier responded to one of my calls for tenders for 1000 PDAs and the deployment project in our warehouses at € 250k, lower than all of its competitors. I know that this supplier provided a similar service for a former schoolmate at 235k €. After several calls and a few negotiation meetings (20h charge), I failed to get a lower price and accepted the deal. After all it’s not that bad, I was
only hoping for 6% off . I was the victim of my framing bias . By focusing on the proportions of 6% and 20%, I attributed an inordinate importance to a negligible sum: I spent 1 hour of my time negotiating a reduction of 150 € and I did not spend than 20 to negotiate a reduction of 15k €, whereas this is an amount 100 times higher. If we spend 1 hour for € 150, it seems relevant to spend 100 hours for € 15,000. If we spend 20 hours for € 15,000, we should limit the effort to 12 minutes for € 150, and not devote an hour to it. How to avoid framing bias : Compare gross values in € with each other when you have to prioritize your
It’s Mathematically Impossible
activities Confirmation Confirmation bias is one of the most prevalent and most difficult to counter. When we already have an opinion on a question, we tend to overestimate the clues that go our way and underestimate those that say the opposite. Worse, when we have found a source that confirms our choice, we stop looking. Climate change, hydroxychloroquine, vaccines, beneficial effects of wine, etc. All subjects are concerned. Example : We decided to write articles regularly (2 per week). We have been successful in selling missions through articles we write. This confirms that it was a good idea
and that we should continue to write articles regularly. How to avoid confirmation bias : It is a personal discipline to adopt. I recommend to systematically seek to identify the elements which affirm and the elements which go against each of the assumptions. We can for example build a matrix with 2 boxes for each option we have. If I have to decide to wear a mask in some company space, here is an example of a matrix I can build in V0. Image shows incomplete decision matrix V0 of the decision matrix This allows me to immediately realize that there is an empty box, and that there is information that I need to substantiate.